文章摘要
禁止核武器条约:接下来做什么?
The Nuclear Ban Treaty: What Would Follow?
投稿时间:2017-06-01  修订日期:2017-09-30
DOI:10.14093/j.cnki.cn10-1132/d.2018.01.005
中文关键词: 禁止核武器条约  不扩散核武器条约  禁止生物武器公约
英文关键词: the Nuclear Ban Treaty, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Biological Weapons Convention
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51777057)。
作者单位
【美】 乔治·佩科维奇 卡内基国际和平基金会,Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 
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中文摘要:
      核不扩散机制使得世界从1945年以后没有发生过核战争,而且帮助防止了核武器扩散至更多国家或流入恐怖组织手中。然而,当前围绕禁止核武器条约的态势,可能会分散国际社会对核不扩散机制的关注和努力,这是禁止核武器条约的反对者和怀疑者们所担心的。禁止核武器条约的讨论得到国际支持,主要是因为核武器国家未能在《不扩散核武器条约》框架下就核裁军显示出“诚意”。无核武器国家占据大多数,而其中的多数又不能接受核裁军没有进展的现状,也不愿意成为有核国家启动核战争决策的人质。此外,尽管促成禁核条约的种种关切合情合理,但令人担忧的是条约过于简单,从而缺少严格的核查以及强制遵约条款。因此,核武器国家可以单独或与其他核武器国家一道更加认真地履行核裁军义务,设计核裁军机制的范本需要解决禁核条约绕开的关键问题,并需要进行国际辩论,讨论何种条件下首先使用核武器是必要与正当的,才是消除禁核条约造成对立的出路所在。
英文摘要:
      Opponents and skeptics fear that the dynamics surrounding a nuclear ban treaty will distract attention and effort from the nonproliferation regime that has helped prevent nuclear war since 1945, and that has prevented the proliferation of nuclear weapons to more states and to terrorist organizations. International support for a nuclear prohibition treaty became nearly inevitable, and non-nuclear-weapon states are in the majority; most of them do not accept this lack of progress toward disarmament and are reluctant to be held hostage to the potentially nuclear war-triggering decision-making of leaders such as Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump. In addition, despite the legitimate concerns that prompted it, the ban treaty’s simplicity and corresponding lack of rigorous verification and enforcement provisions are cause for concern. Therefore, nuclear-armed states could individually or with other actors take nuclear disarmament obligations more seriously by specifying—theoretically, for now-how they would design a verifiable, enforceable nuclear disarmament regime. The process of designing a prototype disarmament regime would address vital questions that the ban treaty avoids. And an international debate is needed on the conditions, if any, under which the first use of nuclear weapons could be necessary and legitimate.
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